Riding profile
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
The question
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for the SNP, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Seamus Logan
Sits with SNP
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 52%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAberdeenshire North and Moray East | 28.4% | 28.4% | 24.6% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +9.5 | 2.5% +25.9 | 25.3% −0.7 | 11.6% −2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seamus Logan Elected | SNP | 13,455 | 35.2 | — |
| Douglas Ross | Conservative | 12,513 | 32.8 | — |
| Jo Hart | Reform UK | 5,562 | 14.6 | — |
| Andy Brown | Labour | 3,876 | 10.2 | — |
| Ian Bailey | Lib Dems | 2,782 | 7.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029