Riding profile

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.4%
  • SNP 28.6%
  • Reform UK 27.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.5%
  • Green 4.3%
  • Labour 1.8%
  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative SNP Reform UK Lib Dems
HereAberdeenshire North and Moray East 29.4%28.6%27.6%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.1 2.8% +25.8 25.4% +2.2 11.4% −3.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Seamus Logan

Sits with SNP

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Seamus Logan Elected SNP 13,455 35.2 —
Douglas Ross Conservative 12,513 32.8 —
Jo Hart Reform UK 5,562 14.6 —
Andy Brown Labour 3,876 10.2 —
Ian Bailey Lib Dems 2,782 7.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
69.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029