Riding profile

Aberdeen North

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Aberdeen North: a safe seat for the SNP?

Editorial read

Aberdeen North, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kirsty Blackman

Sits with SNP

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.7%
  • Reform UK 18.1%
  • Labour 17.3%
  • Conservative 11.9%
  • Green 8.4%
  • Lib Dems 7.7%
  • Other 5.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Conservative
HereAberdeen North 30.7%18.1%17.3%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +28.2 25.3% −7.2 21.7% −4.3 18.9% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
4.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kirsty Blackman Elected SNP 14,533 34.5
Lynn Thomson Labour 12,773 30.3
Gillian Tebberen Conservative 5,881 14.0
Kenneth Leggat Reform UK 3,781 9.0
Desmond Bouse Lib Dems 2,583 6.1
Esme Houston Green 1,275 3.0
Charlie Abel Other 703 1.7
Dawn Smith Other 352 0.8
Lucas Grant Other 214 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029