Riding profile

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry: a safe seat for the SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 34.4%
  • Reform UK 21.9%
  • Conservative 17.3%
  • Labour 11.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 4.5%
  • Green 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereArbroath and Broughty Ferry 34.4%21.9%17.3%11.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +31.7 25.4% −3.5 19.3% −2.0 21.8% −10.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephen Gethins Elected SNP 15,581 35.3
Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank Labour 14,722 33.4
Richard Brooks Conservative 6,841 15.5
Gwen Wood Reform UK 3,800 8.6
David Evans Lib Dems 2,249 5.1
Ghazi Khan Other 693 1.6
Moira Brown Other 231 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029