Riding profile

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry: a safe seat for the SNP?

Editorial read

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 35.5%
  • Reform UK 25.4%
  • Conservative 14.3%
  • Labour 10.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Green 3.9%
  • Other 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereArbroath and Broughty Ferry 35.5%25.4%14.3%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +32.9 25.3% +0.1 18.9% −4.6 21.7% −11.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephen Gethins Elected SNP 15,581 35.3
Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank Labour 14,722 33.4
Richard Brooks Conservative 6,841 15.5
Gwen Wood Reform UK 3,800 8.6
David Evans Lib Dems 2,249 5.1
Ghazi Khan Other 693 1.6
Moira Brown Other 231 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029