Riding profile

North East Fife

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

North East Fife: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 44.3%
  • SNP 24.8%
  • Reform UK 16.5%
  • Conservative 6.5%
  • Green 4.5%
  • Labour 2.4%
  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Conservative
HereNorth East Fife 44.3%24.8%16.5%6.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +33.0 2.8% +22.0 25.4% −8.8 19.3% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North East Fife, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 44% vote share, against 25% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Wendy Chamberlain

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
31.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Wendy Chamberlain Elected Lib Dems 23,384 54.7 —
Stefan Hoggan-Radu SNP 9,905 23.2 —
Jennifer Gallagher Labour 4,026 9.4 —
Matthew Wren Reform UK 2,094 4.9 —
Bill Bowman Conservative 1,666 3.9 —
Morven Ovenstone-Jones Green 1,653 3.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
69.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029