Lothian East
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lothian East | 32.0% | 22.0% | 16.3% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+5.5 | 2.8%+19.1 | 22.3%−6.0 | 20.0%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
|---|
Current member
Mr Douglas Alexander · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 27.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Alexander Elected | Labour | 23,555 | 49.0 |
| Lyn Jardine | SNP | 10,290 | 21.4 |
| Scott Hamilton | Conservative | 5,535 | 11.5 |
| Robert Davies | Reform UK | 3,039 | 6.3 |
| Duncan Dunlop | Lib Dems | 2,649 | 5.5 |
| Shona McIntosh | Green | 2,477 | 5.2 |
| George Kerevan | Other | 557 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, competitive
- Midlothian SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, toss-up
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated