Riding profile

Lothian East

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Lothian East: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Lothian East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 19% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Douglas Alexander

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.1%
  • SNP 18.9%
  • Reform UK 17.7%
  • Green 11.1%
  • Conservative 9.7%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Other 5.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Green
HereLothian East 29.1%18.9%17.7%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +7.4 2.5% +16.3 25.3% −7.6 11.8% −0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Douglas Alexander Elected Labour 23,555 49.0
Lyn Jardine SNP 10,290 21.4
Scott Hamilton Conservative 5,535 11.5
Robert Davies Reform UK 3,039 6.3
Duncan Dunlop Lib Dems 2,649 5.5
Shona McIntosh Green 2,477 5.2
George Kerevan Other 557 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029