Riding profile
Lothian East
The question
Lothian East: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Lothian East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 19% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Douglas Alexander
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLothian East | 29.1% | 18.9% | 17.7% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +7.4 | 2.5% +16.3 | 25.3% −7.6 | 11.8% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Alexander Elected | Labour | 23,555 | 49.0 | — |
| Lyn Jardine | SNP | 10,290 | 21.4 | — |
| Scott Hamilton | Conservative | 5,535 | 11.5 | — |
| Robert Davies | Reform UK | 3,039 | 6.3 | — |
| Duncan Dunlop | Lib Dems | 2,649 | 5.5 | — |
| Shona McIntosh | Green | 2,477 | 5.2 | — |
| George Kerevan | Other | 557 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029