Riding profile

Lothian East

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Lothian East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
0.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 24.6%
  • SNP 23.6%
  • Reform UK 20.7%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Conservative 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Green
HereLothian East 24.6%23.6%20.7%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +2.7 2.8% +20.9 25.4% −4.6 10.8% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Lothian East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 25% vote share, against 24% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Douglas Alexander

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Douglas Alexander Elected Labour 23,555 49.0 —
Lyn Jardine SNP 10,290 21.4 —
Scott Hamilton Conservative 5,535 11.5 —
Robert Davies Reform UK 3,039 6.3 —
Duncan Dunlop Lib Dems 2,649 5.5 —
Shona McIntosh Green 2,477 5.2 —
George Kerevan Other 557 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029