Riding profile

Gordon and Buchan

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Gordon and Buchan: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Reform UK 26.7%
  • SNP 23.4%
  • Lib Dems 14.4%
  • Green 3.4%
  • Labour 1.8%
  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK SNP Lib Dems
HereGordon and Buchan 29.5%26.7%23.4%14.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.1 25.4% +1.3 2.8% +20.6 11.4% +3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Gordon and Buchan, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Harriet Cross

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harriet Cross Elected Conservative 14,418 32.9 —
Richard Thomson SNP 13,540 30.9 —
Conrad Wood Lib Dems 7,307 16.7 —
Nurul Ali Labour 4,686 10.7 —
Kris Callander Reform UK 3,897 8.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029