Riding profile

Gordon and Buchan

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Gordon and Buchan: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Gordon and Buchan, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Harriet Cross

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 28.1%
  • SNP 25.1%
  • Reform UK 21.6%
  • Lib Dems 17.3%
  • Green 3.8%
  • Labour 3.1%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative SNP Reform UK Lib Dems
HereGordon and Buchan 28.1%25.1%21.6%17.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +9.2 2.5% +22.6 25.3% −3.7 11.6% +5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harriet Cross Elected Conservative 14,418 32.9
Richard Thomson SNP 13,540 30.9
Conrad Wood Lib Dems 7,307 16.7
Nurul Ali Labour 4,686 10.7
Kris Callander Reform UK 3,897 8.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029