Riding profile
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke
The question
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMotherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 36.7% | 22.1% | 21.2% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +33.9 | 25.4% −3.3 | 21.8% −0.6 | 10.8% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 37% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pamela Nash
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamela Nash Elected | Labour | 19,168 | 49.1 | — |
| Marion Fellows | SNP | 12,083 | 31.0 | — |
| Robert McLaughlan | Reform UK | 3,004 | 7.7 | — |
| Oyebola Ajala | Conservative | 2,415 | 6.2 | — |
| Gordon Miller | Green | 1,200 | 3.1 | — |
| Hayley Bennie | Lib Dems | 822 | 2.1 | — |
| Gus Ferguson | Other | 158 | 0.4 | — |
| Neil Wilson | Other | 110 | 0.3 | — |
| Ross Hagen | Other | 66 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029