Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 61%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 34.1% | 29.9% | 17.5% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+31.3 | 26.5%+3.4 | 22.3%−4.7 | 9.7%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
|---|
Current member
Pamela Nash · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pamela Nash Elected | Labour | 19,168 | 49.1 |
| Marion Fellows | SNP | 12,083 | 31.0 |
| Robert McLaughlan | Reform UK | 3,004 | 7.7 |
| Oyebola Ajala | Conservative | 2,415 | 6.2 |
| Gordon Miller | Green | 1,200 | 3.1 |
| Hayley Bennie | Lib Dems | 822 | 2.1 |
| Gus Ferguson | Other | 158 | 0.4 |
| Neil Wilson | Other | 110 | 0.3 |
| Ross Hagen | Other | 66 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, toss-up
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour, toss-up
- Falkirk SNP, competitive
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, toss-up
- Bathgate and Linlithgow Labour, toss-up
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated