Riding profile

Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pamela Nash

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.9%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Reform UK 24.1%
  • Green 7.0%
  • Conservative 6.3%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereMotherwell, Wishaw and Carluke 29.9%25.2%24.1%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +27.4 21.7% +3.6 25.3% −1.3 11.8% −4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pamela Nash Elected Labour 19,168 49.1
Marion Fellows SNP 12,083 31.0
Robert McLaughlan Reform UK 3,004 7.7
Oyebola Ajala Conservative 2,415 6.2
Gordon Miller Green 1,200 3.1
Hayley Bennie Lib Dems 822 2.1
Gus Ferguson Other 158 0.4
Neil Wilson Other 110 0.3
Ross Hagen Other 66 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
71.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029