Riding profile
Alloa and Grangemouth
The question
Alloa and Grangemouth: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Alloa and Grangemouth, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Brian Leishman
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAlloa and Grangemouth | 27.6% | 26.8% | 20.0% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +25.0 | 25.3% +1.5 | 21.7% −1.6 | 18.9% −11.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leishman Elected | Labour | 18,039 | 43.8 | — |
| John Nicolson | SNP | 11,917 | 28.9 | — |
| Richard Fairley | Reform UK | 3,804 | 9.2 | — |
| Rachel Nunn | Conservative | 3,127 | 7.6 | — |
| Nariese Whyte | Green | 1,421 | 3.5 | — |
| Adrian May | Lib Dems | 1,151 | 2.8 | — |
| Eva Comrie | Other | 881 | 2.1 | — |
| Kenny MacAskill | Other | 638 | 1.6 | — |
| Tom Flanagan | Other | 223 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029