Riding profile

Stirling and Strathallan

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Stirling and Strathallan: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 27.6%
  • Reform UK 23.0%
  • Labour 17.7%
  • Conservative 17.5%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Conservative
HereStirling and Strathallan 27.6%23.0%17.7%17.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +24.8 25.4% −2.4 21.8% −4.1 19.3% −1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stirling and Strathallan, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Kane

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Kane Elected Labour 16,856 33.9 —
Alyn Smith SNP 15,462 31.1 —
Neil Benny Conservative 9,469 19.0 —
Bill McDonald Reform UK 3,145 6.3 —
Hamish Taylor Lib Dems 2,530 5.1 —
Andrew Adam Green 2,320 4.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
70.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029