Riding profile

Stirling and Strathallan

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Stirling and Strathallan: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Stirling and Strathallan, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 19% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Kane

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.3%
  • Labour 18.9%
  • Conservative 17.5%
  • Reform UK 16.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Green 6.3%
  • Other 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Conservative Reform UK
HereStirling and Strathallan 29.3%18.9%17.5%16.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +26.7 21.7% −2.8 18.9% −1.4 25.3% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Kane Elected Labour 16,856 33.9 —
Alyn Smith SNP 15,462 31.1 —
Neil Benny Conservative 9,469 19.0 —
Bill McDonald Reform UK 3,145 6.3 —
Hamish Taylor Lib Dems 2,530 5.1 —
Andrew Adam Green 2,320 4.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
70.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029