Riding profile
Westmorland and Lonsdale
The question
Westmorland and Lonsdale: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWestmorland and Lonsdale | 51.1% | 22.9% | 14.8% | 6.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +39.8 | 25.4% −2.4 | 19.3% −4.5 | 10.8% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Westmorland and Lonsdale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 51% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tim Farron
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Farron Elected | Lib Dems | 31,061 | 62.7 | — |
| Matty Jackman | Conservative | 9,589 | 19.4 | — |
| James Townley | Reform UK | 4,842 | 9.8 | — |
| Pippa Smith | Labour | 2,306 | 4.7 | — |
| Phil Clayton | Green | 1,486 | 3.0 | — |
| John Studholme | Other | 111 | 0.2 | — |
| Izzy Solabarrieta | Other | 81 | 0.2 | — |
| Wendy Long | Other | 57 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029