Riding profile
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
The question
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 30.7% | 22.6% | 22.5% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +11.4 | 2.8% +19.8 | 25.4% −2.8 | 10.8% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Mundell
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mundell Elected | Conservative | 14,999 | 33.9 | — |
| Kim Marshall | SNP | 10,757 | 24.3 | — |
| Daniel Coleman | Labour | 10,140 | 22.9 | — |
| David Kirkwood | Reform UK | 3,822 | 8.6 | — |
| Drummond Begg | Lib Dems | 2,800 | 6.3 | — |
| Dominic Ashmole | Green | 1,488 | 3.4 | — |
| Gareth Kirk | Other | 208 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029