Riding profile
South Ribble
The question
South Ribble: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
South Ribble, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Paul Foster
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Ribble | 33.2% | 26.2% | 23.1% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.8 | 21.7% +4.6 | 18.9% +4.3 | 11.8% −3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Foster Elected | Labour | 19,840 | 42.5 | — |
| Katherine Fletcher | Conservative | 13,339 | 28.6 | — |
| Andy Hunter | Reform UK | 8,995 | 19.3 | — |
| Ange Turner | Lib Dems | 2,972 | 6.4 | — |
| Stephani Mok | Green | 1,574 | 3.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029