South Ribble
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Ribble | 34.0% | 27.9% | 24.7% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+7.6 | 22.3%+5.6 | 20.0%+4.6 | 9.7%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,699 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 78.5% |
Current member
Mr Paul Foster · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Foster Elected | Labour | 19,840 | 42.5 |
| Katherine Fletcher | Conservative | 13,339 | 28.6 |
| Andy Hunter | Reform UK | 8,995 | 19.3 |
| Ange Turner | Lib Dems | 2,972 | 6.4 |
| Stephani Mok | Green | 1,574 | 3.4 |
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated