Riding profile

South Ribble

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

South Ribble: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.6%
  • Labour 26.2%
  • Conservative 22.8%
  • Green 7.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.0%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereSouth Ribble 34.6%26.2%22.8%7.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.2 21.8% +4.4 19.3% +3.5 10.8% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

South Ribble, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Paul Foster

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul Foster Elected Labour 19,840 42.5 —
Katherine Fletcher Conservative 13,339 28.6 —
Andy Hunter Reform UK 8,995 19.3 —
Ange Turner Lib Dems 2,972 6.4 —
Stephani Mok Green 1,574 3.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,699
Median age
45
Employment rate
78.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029