Riding profile

Pendle and Clitheroe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Pendle and Clitheroe: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.5%
  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Labour 21.5%
  • Other 8.3%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Other
HerePendle and Clitheroe 29.5%27.3%21.5%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.2 19.3% +7.9 21.8% −0.3 5.0% +3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Pendle and Clitheroe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jonathan Hinder

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonathan Hinder Elected Labour 16,129 34.5
Andrew Stephenson Conservative 15,227 32.6
Victoria Fletcher Reform UK 8,171 17.5
Zulfikar Khan Other 3,108 6.7
Anna Fryer Lib Dems 2,039 4.4
Lex Kristan Green 1,421 3.0
Syed Hashmi Other 336 0.7
Christopher Thompson Other 190 0.4
Tony Johnson Other 133 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,926
Median age
41
Employment rate
87.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029