Riding profile

Burnley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Burnley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.8%
  • Labour 20.9%
  • Conservative 18.2%
  • Lib Dems 17.6%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereBurnley 31.8%20.9%18.2%17.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.4 21.8% −1.0 19.3% −1.2 11.4% +6.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Burnley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Oliver Ryan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Oliver Ryan Elected Labour 12,598 31.7 —
Gordon Birtwistle Lib Dems 9,178 23.1 —
Antony Higginbotham Conservative 8,058 20.3 —
Nathan McCollum Reform UK 7,755 19.5 —
Jack Launer Green 1,518 3.8 —
Rayyan Fiass Other 292 0.7 —
Mitchell Cryer Other 169 0.4 —
David Roper Other 151 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,444
Median age
39
Employment rate
68.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029