Riding profile
Burnley
The question
Burnley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Burnley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Oliver Ryan
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBurnley | 30.6% | 21.4% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.3 | 21.7% −0.3 | 11.6% +7.4 | 18.9% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ryan Elected | Labour | 12,598 | 31.7 | — |
| Gordon Birtwistle | Lib Dems | 9,178 | 23.1 | — |
| Antony Higginbotham | Conservative | 8,058 | 20.3 | — |
| Nathan McCollum | Reform UK | 7,755 | 19.5 | — |
| Jack Launer | Green | 1,518 | 3.8 | — |
| Rayyan Fiass | Other | 292 | 0.7 | — |
| Mitchell Cryer | Other | 169 | 0.4 | — |
| David Roper | Other | 151 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029