Riding profile

Altrincham and Sale West

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Altrincham and Sale West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.2%
  • Conservative 27.2%
  • Reform UK 21.6%
  • Lib Dems 9.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems
HereAltrincham and Sale West 30.2%27.2%21.6%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.4 19.3% +7.9 25.4% −3.7 11.4% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Altrincham and Sale West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Connor Rand

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Connor Rand Elected Labour 20,798 40.4 —
Oliver Carroll Conservative 16,624 32.3 —
Paul Swansborough Reform UK 4,961 9.6 —
Jane Brophy Lib Dems 4,727 9.2 —
Geraldine Coggins Green 3,699 7.2 —
Faisal Kabir Other 643 1.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,272
Median age
42
Employment rate
73.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029