Riding profile

Tatton

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Tatton: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.5%
  • Reform UK 24.9%
  • Labour 24.5%
  • Lib Dems 9.7%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereTatton 31.5%24.9%24.5%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.2 25.4% −0.5 21.8% +2.7 11.4% −1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Tatton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Esther McVey

Sits with Conservative

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Esther McVey Elected Conservative 19,956 38.4 —
Ryan Jude Labour 18,820 36.3 —
Oliver Speakman Reform UK 5,948 11.5 —
Jonathan Smith Lib Dems 4,614 8.9 —
Nigel Hennerley Green 2,571 5.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,238
Median age
47
Employment rate
88.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029