Riding profile
Tatton
The question
Tatton: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Tatton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Esther McVey
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTatton | 31.2% | 25.8% | 22.0% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.3 | 25.3% +0.4 | 21.7% +0.4 | 11.6% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esther McVey Elected | Conservative | 19,956 | 38.4 | — |
| Ryan Jude | Labour | 18,820 | 36.3 | — |
| Oliver Speakman | Reform UK | 5,948 | 11.5 | — |
| Jonathan Smith | Lib Dems | 4,614 | 8.9 | — |
| Nigel Hennerley | Green | 2,571 | 5.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029