Riding profile
Stalybridge and Hyde
The question
Stalybridge and Hyde: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Stalybridge and Hyde, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jonathan Reynolds
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStalybridge and Hyde | 32.5% | 27.3% | 15.0% | 13.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.2 | 21.7% +5.6 | 18.9% −3.9 | 11.8% +2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Reynolds Elected | Labour | 16,320 | 43.8 | — |
| Barbara Kaya | Reform UK | 7,781 | 20.9 | — |
| Phil Chadwick | Conservative | 6,872 | 18.4 | — |
| Robert Hodgetts-Haley | Green | 2,745 | 7.4 | — |
| Audel Shirin | Other | 1,227 | 3.3 | — |
| Ian Owen | Other | 1,214 | 3.3 | — |
| Kamala Kugan | Lib Dems | 1,080 | 2.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029