Riding profile
Stalybridge and Hyde
The question
Stalybridge and Hyde: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStalybridge and Hyde | 33.7% | 30.0% | 14.8% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.3 | 21.8% +8.2 | 19.3% −4.5 | 10.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Stalybridge and Hyde, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jonathan Reynolds
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Reynolds Elected | Labour | 16,320 | 43.8 | — |
| Barbara Kaya | Reform UK | 7,781 | 20.9 | — |
| Phil Chadwick | Conservative | 6,872 | 18.4 | — |
| Robert Hodgetts-Haley | Green | 2,745 | 7.4 | — |
| Audel Shirin | Other | 1,227 | 3.3 | — |
| Ian Owen | Other | 1,214 | 3.3 | — |
| Kamala Kugan | Lib Dems | 1,080 | 2.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029