Riding profile

Oldham East and Saddleworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Oldham East and Saddleworth: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.0%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Other 15.1%
  • Conservative 14.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Green 7.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Other Conservative
HereOldham East and Saddleworth 29.0%25.2%15.1%14.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.7 21.8% +3.4 5.0% +10.1 19.3% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Oldham East and Saddleworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Debbie Abrahams

Sits with Labour

Since
2011-01-13
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Debbie Abrahams Elected Labour 14,091 35.2 —
Jacob Barden Reform UK 7,734 19.3 —
Tom Fish Conservative 6,838 17.1 —
Shanaz Saddique Other 4,647 11.6 —
Sam Al-Hamdani Lib Dems 3,386 8.4 —
Fesl Reza Khan Green 1,490 3.7 —
Paul Errock Other 1,362 3.4 —
Nick Buckley Other 517 1.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,355
Median age
38
Employment rate
60.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029