Riding profile
Oldham East and Saddleworth
The question
Oldham East and Saddleworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Oldham East and Saddleworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Debbie Abrahams
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOldham East and Saddleworth | 32.3% | 22.2% | 13.3% | 12.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.0 | 21.7% +0.6 | 4.8% +8.5 | 18.9% −6.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debbie Abrahams Elected | Labour | 14,091 | 35.2 | — |
| Jacob Barden | Reform UK | 7,734 | 19.3 | — |
| Tom Fish | Conservative | 6,838 | 17.1 | — |
| Shanaz Saddique | Other | 4,647 | 11.6 | — |
| Sam Al-Hamdani | Lib Dems | 3,386 | 8.4 | — |
| Fesl Reza Khan | Green | 1,490 | 3.7 | — |
| Paul Errock | Other | 1,362 | 3.4 | — |
| Nick Buckley | Other | 517 | 1.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029