Riding profile
Newcastle-under-Lyme
The question
Newcastle-under-Lyme: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Newcastle-under-Lyme, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Adam Jogee
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewcastle-under-Lyme | 34.9% | 25.3% | 22.5% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.6 | 21.7% +3.6 | 18.9% +3.6 | 11.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jogee Elected | Labour | 15,992 | 40.4 | — |
| Simon Tagg | Conservative | 10,923 | 27.6 | — |
| Neill Walker | Reform UK | 8,865 | 22.4 | — |
| Nigel Jones | Lib Dems | 1,987 | 5.0 | — |
| Jennifer Hibell | Green | 1,851 | 4.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029