Riding profile
Stoke-on-Trent South
The question
Stoke-on-Trent South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Stoke-on-Trent South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Allison Gardner
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStoke-on-Trent South | 34.0% | 27.6% | 20.9% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.7 | 18.9% +8.8 | 21.7% −0.8 | 11.8% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison Gardner Elected | Labour | 14,221 | 34.7 | — |
| Jack Brereton | Conservative | 13,594 | 33.2 | — |
| Michael Baily | Reform UK | 8,851 | 21.6 | — |
| Alec Sandiford | Lib Dems | 1,577 | 3.9 | — |
| Asif Mehmood | Other | 1,372 | 3.4 | — |
| Peggy Wiseman | Green | 1,207 | 3.0 | — |
| Carla Parrish | Other | 120 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029