Riding profile

Staffordshire Moorlands

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Staffordshire Moorlands: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 37.2%
  • Conservative 28.2%
  • Labour 19.8%
  • Green 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 4.7%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereStaffordshire Moorlands 37.2%28.2%19.8%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.8 19.3% +8.9 21.8% −2.1 10.8% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Staffordshire Moorlands, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dame Karen Bradley

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karen Bradley Elected Conservative 15,310 35.4 —
Alastair Watson Labour 14,135 32.6 —
Dave Poole Reform UK 10,065 23.2 —
Helen Stead Green 2,293 5.3 —
Graham Oakes Lib Dems 1,499 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
85,262
Median age
49
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029