Riding profile
Staffordshire Moorlands
The question
Staffordshire Moorlands: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Staffordshire Moorlands, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dame Karen Bradley
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStaffordshire Moorlands | 35.6% | 28.9% | 18.8% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.3 | 18.9% +10.0 | 21.7% −2.8 | 11.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bradley Elected | Conservative | 15,310 | 35.4 | — |
| Alastair Watson | Labour | 14,135 | 32.6 | — |
| Dave Poole | Reform UK | 10,065 | 23.2 | — |
| Helen Stead | Green | 2,293 | 5.3 | — |
| Graham Oakes | Lib Dems | 1,499 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029