Riding profile
Derbyshire Dales
The question
Derbyshire Dales: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Derbyshire Dales, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
John Whitby
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDerbyshire Dales | 28.1% | 27.9% | 21.3% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +9.2 | 25.3% +2.5 | 21.7% −0.3 | 11.8% −1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Whitby Elected | Labour | 17,759 | 34.6 | — |
| Sarah Dines | Conservative | 17,409 | 34.0 | — |
| Edward Oakenfull | Reform UK | 7,728 | 15.1 | — |
| Robert Court | Lib Dems | 4,860 | 9.5 | — |
| Kelda Boothroyd | Green | 2,830 | 5.5 | — |
| Rachel Elnaugh-Love | Other | 369 | 0.7 | — |
| Helen Wetherall | Other | 317 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029