Riding profile

Derbyshire Dales

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Derbyshire Dales: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 28.7%
  • Reform UK 27.3%
  • Labour 19.3%
  • Green 11.1%
  • Lib Dems 10.4%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereDerbyshire Dales 28.7%27.3%19.3%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.4 25.4% +1.9 21.8% −2.5 10.8% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Derbyshire Dales, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

John Whitby

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Whitby Elected Labour 17,759 34.6 —
Sarah Dines Conservative 17,409 34.0 —
Edward Oakenfull Reform UK 7,728 15.1 —
Robert Court Lib Dems 4,860 9.5 —
Kelda Boothroyd Green 2,830 5.5 —
Rachel Elnaugh-Love Other 369 0.7 —
Helen Wetherall Other 317 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
90,430
Median age
50
Employment rate
73.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029