Riding profile
Amber Valley
The question
Amber Valley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Amber Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Linsey Farnsworth
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAmber Valley | 39.3% | 22.4% | 21.4% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +13.9 | 21.7% +0.8 | 18.9% +2.5 | 11.8% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linsey Farnsworth Elected | Labour | 15,746 | 37.0 | — |
| Alex Stevenson | Reform UK | 12,192 | 28.7 | — |
| Nigel Mills | Conservative | 10,725 | 25.2 | — |
| Matt McGuinness | Green | 2,278 | 5.4 | — |
| Kate Smith | Lib Dems | 1,590 | 3.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029