Riding profile

Amber Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Amber Valley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 40.8%
  • Conservative 21.6%
  • Labour 21.1%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereAmber Valley 40.8%21.6%21.1%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +15.5 19.3% +2.3 21.8% −0.7 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Amber Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Linsey Farnsworth

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Linsey Farnsworth Elected Labour 15,746 37.0 —
Alex Stevenson Reform UK 12,192 28.7 —
Nigel Mills Conservative 10,725 25.2 —
Matt McGuinness Green 2,278 5.4 —
Kate Smith Lib Dems 1,590 3.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
90,793
Median age
45
Employment rate
77.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029