Riding profile
Ashfield
The question
Ashfield: a safe seat for Reform UK?
Editorial read
Ashfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 51% vote share, against 15% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lee Anderson
Sits with Reform UK
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Other | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAshfield | 50.6% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +25.2 | 4.8% +10.2 | 21.7% −7.3 | 11.6% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Anderson Elected | Reform UK | 17,062 | 42.8 | — |
| Rhea Keehn | Labour | 11,554 | 29.0 | — |
| Jason Zadrozny | Other | 6,276 | 15.7 | — |
| Debbie Soloman | Conservative | 3,271 | 8.2 | — |
| Alexander Coates | Green | 1,100 | 2.8 | — |
| Daniel Holmes | Lib Dems | 619 | 1.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029