Riding profile
Ashfield
The question
Ashfield: a safe seat for Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAshfield | 45.2% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +19.9 | 21.8% −3.9 | 5.0% +11.4 | 19.3% −10.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ashfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 45% vote share, against 18% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lee Anderson
Sits with Reform UK
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Anderson Elected | Reform UK | 17,062 | 42.8 | — |
| Rhea Keehn | Labour | 11,554 | 29.0 | — |
| Jason Zadrozny | Other | 6,276 | 15.7 | — |
| Debbie Soloman | Conservative | 3,271 | 8.2 | — |
| Alexander Coates | Green | 1,100 | 2.8 | — |
| Daniel Holmes | Lib Dems | 619 | 1.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029