Riding profile

Nottingham South

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Nottingham South: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Nottingham South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lilian Greenwood

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.6%
  • Reform UK 26.8%
  • Green 11.8%
  • Conservative 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 9.9%
  • Other 6.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereNottingham South 33.6%26.8%11.8%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +12.0 25.3% +1.5 11.8% 18.9% −7.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lilian Greenwood Elected Labour 15,579 47.4
Zarmeena Quraishi Conservative 5,285 16.1
Mykel Hedge Reform UK 4,936 15.0
Cath Sutherland Green 2,923 8.9
Christina Morgan-Danvers Lib Dems 2,059 6.3
Paras Ghazni Other 1,496 4.5
Shaghofta Akhtar Other 449 1.4
Mohammed Sayeed Other 152 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,911
Median age
27
Employment rate
67.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029