Riding profile
Gedling
The question
Gedling: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGedling | 31.2% | 29.4% | 19.0% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.4 | 25.4% +4.1 | 19.3% −0.3 | 10.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Gedling, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Michael Payne
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Payne Elected | Labour | 23,278 | 47.8 | — |
| Tom Randall | Conservative | 11,397 | 23.4 | — |
| Simon Christy | Reform UK | 8,211 | 16.9 | — |
| Dominic Berry | Green | 3,122 | 6.4 | — |
| Tad Jones | Lib Dems | 2,473 | 5.1 | — |
| Irenea Marriott | Other | 241 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029