Riding profile
Gedling
The question
Gedling: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Gedling, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Michael Payne
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGedling | 31.2% | 28.5% | 19.2% | 12.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +9.5 | 25.3% +3.1 | 18.9% +0.3 | 11.8% +0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Payne Elected | Labour | 23,278 | 47.8 | — |
| Tom Randall | Conservative | 11,397 | 23.4 | — |
| Simon Christy | Reform UK | 8,211 | 16.9 | — |
| Dominic Berry | Green | 3,122 | 6.4 | — |
| Tad Jones | Lib Dems | 2,473 | 5.1 | — |
| Irenea Marriott | Other | 241 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029