Riding profile

Sherwood Forest

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Sherwood Forest: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.0%
  • Conservative 23.0%
  • Labour 22.1%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSherwood Forest 35.0%23.0%22.1%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.6 19.3% +3.7 21.8% +0.3 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sherwood Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michelle Welsh

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michelle Welsh Elected Labour 18,841 38.7 —
Mark Spencer Conservative 13,398 27.5 —
Helen O'Hare Reform UK 11,320 23.3 —
Sheila Greatrex-White Green 2,216 4.5 —
David Dobbie Lib Dems 1,838 3.8 —
Lee Waters Other 864 1.8 —
Jeremy Spry Other 183 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,305
Median age
43
Employment rate
73.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029