Riding profile
Sherwood Forest
The question
Sherwood Forest: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Sherwood Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michelle Welsh
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSherwood Forest | 35.8% | 22.7% | 22.3% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.5 | 21.7% +1.1 | 18.9% +3.4 | 11.8% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Welsh Elected | Labour | 18,841 | 38.7 | — |
| Mark Spencer | Conservative | 13,398 | 27.5 | — |
| Helen O'Hare | Reform UK | 11,320 | 23.3 | — |
| Sheila Greatrex-White | Green | 2,216 | 4.5 | — |
| David Dobbie | Lib Dems | 1,838 | 3.8 | — |
| Lee Waters | Other | 864 | 1.8 | — |
| Jeremy Spry | Other | 183 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029