Riding profile
Mansfield
The question
Mansfield: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Mansfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Steve Yemm
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMansfield | 37.1% | 24.6% | 21.3% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.7 | 18.9% +5.7 | 21.7% −0.3 | 11.8% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Yemm Elected | Labour | 16,048 | 39.1 | — |
| Ben Bradley | Conservative | 12,563 | 30.6 | — |
| Matthew Warnes | Reform UK | 9,385 | 22.8 | — |
| Phil Shields | Green | 1,326 | 3.2 | — |
| Michael Wyatt | Lib Dems | 799 | 1.9 | — |
| Peter Dean | Other | 423 | 1.0 | — |
| Wesley Milligan | Other | 335 | 0.8 | — |
| Karen Seymour | Other | 123 | 0.3 | — |
| Zen Bilas | Other | 85 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029