Riding profile

Mansfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Mansfield: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.7%
  • Conservative 26.0%
  • Labour 22.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMansfield 34.7%26.0%22.3%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.3 19.3% +6.7 21.8% +0.5 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mansfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Steve Yemm

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Yemm Elected Labour 16,048 39.1 —
Ben Bradley Conservative 12,563 30.6 —
Matthew Warnes Reform UK 9,385 22.8 —
Phil Shields Green 1,326 3.2 —
Michael Wyatt Lib Dems 799 1.9 —
Peter Dean Other 423 1.0 —
Wesley Milligan Other 335 0.8 —
Karen Seymour Other 123 0.3 —
Zen Bilas Other 85 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,514
Median age
42
Employment rate
68.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029