Riding profile

Bolsover

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Bolsover: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.9%
  • Labour 23.8%
  • Conservative 21.0%
  • Green 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBolsover 34.9%23.8%21.0%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.5 21.8% +1.9 19.3% +1.7 10.8% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bolsover, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Natalie Fleet

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Natalie Fleet Elected Labour 17,197 40.5 —
Mark Fletcher Conservative 10,874 25.6 —
Robert Reaney Reform UK 9,131 21.5 —
David Kesteven Green 3,754 8.8 —
David Hancock Lib Dems 1,478 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,967
Median age
43
Employment rate
74.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029