Riding profile
Bolsover
The question
Bolsover: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bolsover, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Natalie Fleet
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolsover | 35.6% | 23.1% | 20.2% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.3 | 21.7% +1.4 | 18.9% +1.3 | 11.8% +2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Fleet Elected | Labour | 17,197 | 40.5 | — |
| Mark Fletcher | Conservative | 10,874 | 25.6 | — |
| Robert Reaney | Reform UK | 9,131 | 21.5 | — |
| David Kesteven | Green | 3,754 | 8.8 | — |
| David Hancock | Lib Dems | 1,478 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029