Riding profile
North East Derbyshire
The question
North East Derbyshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Derbyshire | 30.8% | 28.6% | 23.0% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.4 | 19.3% +9.2 | 21.8% +1.2 | 10.8% −1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North East Derbyshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Louise Sandher-Jones
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louise Jones Elected | Labour | 17,591 | 38.4 | — |
| Lee Rowley | Conservative | 15,838 | 34.5 | — |
| Andy Egginton | Reform UK | 7,899 | 17.2 | — |
| Frank Adlington-Stringer | Green | 2,271 | 5.0 | — |
| Ross Shipman | Lib Dems | 2,159 | 4.7 | — |
| Wesley Massumbukolt | Other | 108 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029