Riding profile

North East Derbyshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

North East Derbyshire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North East Derbyshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Louise Sandher-Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.4%
  • Conservative 28.5%
  • Labour 23.2%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth East Derbyshire 30.4%28.5%23.2%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +5.1 18.9% +9.6 21.7% +1.5 11.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louise Jones Elected Labour 17,591 38.4
Lee Rowley Conservative 15,838 34.5
Andy Egginton Reform UK 7,899 17.2
Frank Adlington-Stringer Green 2,271 5.0
Ross Shipman Lib Dems 2,159 4.7
Wesley Massumbukolt Other 108 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,610
Median age
47
Employment rate
75.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029