Riding profile

Sheffield Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Sheffield Central: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.7%
  • Green 33.9%
  • Reform UK 10.6%
  • Other 7.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Conservative 3.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereSheffield Central 38.7%33.9%10.6%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.9 10.8% +23.1 25.4% −14.8 5.0% +2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sheffield Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 39% vote share, against 34% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Abtisam Mohamed

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Abtisam Mohamed Elected Labour 16,569 52.1 —
Angela Argenzio Green 8,283 26.0 —
Lucy Stephenson Conservative 2,339 7.3 —
Sam Christmas Lib Dems 2,174 6.8 —
Alison Teal Other 1,039 3.3 —
Caitlin Hardy Other 656 2.1 —
Isabelle France Other 409 1.3 —
Annie Stoker Other 334 1.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,926
Median age
26
Employment rate
74.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029