Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

Sheffield Central

Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 42.9%
  • Green 31.7%
  • Reform UK 7.8%
  • Other 6.6%
  • Conservative 5.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Green Reform UK Other
Sheffield Central 42.9%31.7%7.8%6.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 26.5%+16.4 9.7%+22.0 22.3%−14.5 5.1%+1.5

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population92,926
Median age26
Employment rate74.3%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Abtisam Mohamed · Labour

In office since July 4, 2024. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 26.1 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 11.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Abtisam Mohamed Elected Labour 16,569 52.1
Angela Argenzio Green 8,283 26.0
Lucy Stephenson Conservative 2,339 7.4
Sam Christmas Lib Dems 2,174 6.8
Alison Teal Other 1,039 3.3
Caitlin Hardy Other 656 2.1
Isabelle France Other 409 1.3
Annie Stoker Other 334 1.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireSNP76%1.2-point gap
  2. Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketReform UK46%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative63%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated