Riding profile

Sheffield Heeley

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Sheffield Heeley: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.2%
  • Green 21.2%
  • Reform UK 13.1%
  • Conservative 11.9%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereSheffield Heeley 38.2%21.2%13.1%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.4 10.8% +10.4 25.4% −12.3 19.3% −7.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sheffield Heeley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 21% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Louise Haigh

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
39.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louise Haigh Elected Labour 21,230 55.2 —
Alexi Dimond Green 5,926 15.4 —
Lorna Maginnis Conservative 5,242 13.6 —
Rebecca Atkinson Lib Dems 3,863 10.1 —
Helen Jackman Other 711 1.9 —
Steven Roy Other 594 1.5 —
Louise McDonald Other 482 1.3 —
Mick Suter Other 398 1.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,477
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029