Riding profile
Chesterfield
The question
Chesterfield: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 55%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChesterfield | 30.1% | 30.1% | 17.0% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +4.8 | 21.8% +8.3 | 19.3% −2.3 | 10.8% +0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chesterfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Toby Perkins
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Perkins Elected | Labour | 19,316 | 46.5 | — |
| Ben Flook | Conservative | 8,496 | 20.4 | — |
| Dan Price | Reform UK | 7,897 | 19.0 | — |
| David Wadsworth | Green | 2,682 | 6.5 | — |
| Ian Barfield | Lib Dems | 2,553 | 6.1 | — |
| Kris Stone | Other | 363 | 0.9 | — |
| Julie Lowe | Other | 248 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029