Riding profile
Chesterfield
The question
Chesterfield: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Chesterfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Toby Perkins
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChesterfield | 31.6% | 29.2% | 16.4% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.3 | 21.7% +7.5 | 18.9% −2.5 | 11.8% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Perkins Elected | Labour | 19,316 | 46.5 | — |
| Ben Flook | Conservative | 8,496 | 20.4 | — |
| Dan Price | Reform UK | 7,897 | 19.0 | — |
| David Wadsworth | Green | 2,682 | 6.5 | — |
| Ian Barfield | Lib Dems | 2,553 | 6.1 | — |
| Kris Stone | Other | 363 | 0.9 | — |
| Julie Lowe | Other | 248 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029