Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

Sheffield South East

Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.7%
  • Reform UK 15.7%
  • Conservative 13.5%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Other 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 7.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
Sheffield South East 41.7%15.7%13.5%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 26.5%+15.3 22.3%−6.5 20.0%−6.5 9.7%+1.5

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population105,370
Median age40
Employment rate66.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Mr Clive Betts · Labour

In office since April 9, 1992. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 34.8 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 25.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Clive Betts Elected Labour 18,710 52.3
Caroline Kampila Conservative 6,252 17.5
Sophie Thornton Lib Dems 3,421 9.6
Hannah Nicklin Green 3,158 8.8
Jack Carrington Other 1,716 4.8
Muzafar Rahman Other 1,453 4.1
Matthew Leese Other 1,061 3.0

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireSNP76%1.2-point gap
  2. Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketReform UK46%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative63%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated