Riding profile

Sheffield South East

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Sheffield South East: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.5%
  • Reform UK 17.3%
  • Conservative 14.6%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSheffield South East 34.5%17.3%14.6%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.6 25.4% −8.1 19.3% −4.7 10.8% +1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sheffield South East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 17% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Clive Betts

Sits with Labour

Since
1992-04-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
34.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clive Betts Elected Labour 18,710 52.3 —
Caroline Kampila Conservative 6,252 17.5 —
Sophie Thornton Lib Dems 3,421 9.6 —
Hannah Nicklin Green 3,158 8.8 —
Jack Carrington Other 1,716 4.8 —
Muzafar Rahman Other 1,453 4.1 —
Matthew Leese Other 1,061 3.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,370
Median age
40
Employment rate
66.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029