Riding profile

Rotherham

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Rotherham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.6%
  • Labour 28.8%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Other 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.6%
  • Conservative 6.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Other
HereRotherham 35.6%28.8%10.7%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +10.2 21.8% +7.0 10.8% −0.1 5.0% +4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rotherham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Champion

Sits with Labour

Since
2012-11-29
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Champion Elected Labour 16,671 45.1 —
John Cronly Reform UK 11,181 30.3 —
Adam Carter Lib Dems 2,824 7.7 —
Tony Mabbot Green 2,632 7.1 —
Taukir Iqbal Other 1,714 4.6 —
David Atkinson Other 1,363 3.7 —
Ishtiaq Ahmad Other 547 1.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,900
Median age
39
Employment rate
69.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029