Riding profile
Rotherham
The question
Rotherham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rotherham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Champion
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRotherham | 40.5% | 24.7% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +15.2 | 21.7% +3.1 | 11.8% +0.3 | 11.6% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Champion Elected | Labour | 16,671 | 45.1 | — |
| John Cronly | Reform UK | 11,181 | 30.3 | — |
| Adam Carter | Lib Dems | 2,824 | 7.7 | — |
| Tony Mabbot | Green | 2,632 | 7.1 | — |
| Taukir Iqbal | Other | 1,714 | 4.6 | — |
| David Atkinson | Other | 1,363 | 3.7 | — |
| Ishtiaq Ahmad | Other | 547 | 1.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029