Riding profile

Barnsley South

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Barnsley South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 41.9%
  • Labour 29.5%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Conservative 8.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereBarnsley South 41.9%29.5%9.7%8.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +16.5 21.8% +7.7 10.8% −1.2 19.3% −10.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Barnsley South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stephanie Peacock

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephanie Peacock Elected Labour 16,399 46.7 —
David White Reform UK 11,651 33.2 —
Suzanne Pearson Conservative 3,247 9.3 —
Trevor Mayne Green 1,521 4.3 —
Simon Clement-Jones Lib Dems 1,172 3.3 —
Simon Biltcliffe Other 716 2.0 —
Terry Robinson Other 227 0.7 —
Maxine Spencer Other 149 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,571
Median age
40
Employment rate
72.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029