Riding profile
Barnsley South
The question
Barnsley South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Barnsley South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 47% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephanie Peacock
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarnsley South | 46.9% | 25.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +21.5 | 21.7% +4.0 | 11.8% −2.0 | 18.9% −12.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Peacock Elected | Labour | 16,399 | 46.7 | — |
| David White | Reform UK | 11,651 | 33.2 | — |
| Suzanne Pearson | Conservative | 3,247 | 9.3 | — |
| Trevor Mayne | Green | 1,521 | 4.3 | — |
| Simon Clement-Jones | Lib Dems | 1,172 | 3.3 | — |
| Simon Biltcliffe | Other | 716 | 2.0 | — |
| Terry Robinson | Other | 227 | 0.7 | — |
| Maxine Spencer | Other | 149 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029