Riding profile

Barnsley North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Barnsley North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.0%
  • Labour 32.3%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Conservative 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereBarnsley North 39.0%32.3%9.3%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +13.6 21.8% +10.5 10.8% −1.5 19.3% −11.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Barnsley North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dan Jarvis

Sits with Labour

Since
2011-03-03
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Jarvis Elected Labour 18,610 50.4 —
Robert Lomas Reform UK 10,799 29.3 —
Tamas Kovacs Conservative 3,083 8.4 —
Tom Heyes Green 1,805 4.9 —
Penny Baker Lib Dems 1,336 3.6 —
Neil Fisher Other 616 1.7 —
Tony Devoy Other 603 1.6 —
Janus Polenceusz Other 42 0.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,282
Median age
41
Employment rate
77.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029