Barnsley North
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 54%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley North | 41.1% | 36.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+14.6 | 22.3%+14.0 | 20.0%−12.9 | 9.7%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,282 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 77.1% |
Current member
Dan Jarvis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jarvis Elected | Labour | 18,610 | 50.4 |
| Robert Lomas | Reform UK | 10,799 | 29.3 |
| Tamas Kovacs | Conservative | 3,083 | 8.4 |
| Tom Heyes | Green | 1,805 | 4.9 |
| Penny Baker | Lib Dems | 1,336 | 3.6 |
| Neil Fisher | Other | 616 | 1.7 |
| Tony Devoy | Other | 603 | 1.6 |
| Janus Polenceusz | Other | 42 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barnsley South Reform UK, toss-up
- Normanton and Hemsworth Labour, toss-up
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, competitive
- Ossett and Denby Dale Labour, toss-up
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
- Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated