Riding profile
Barnsley North
The question
Barnsley North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Barnsley North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 43% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dan Jarvis
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarnsley North | 43.2% | 28.1% | 10.5% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +17.9 | 21.7% +6.4 | 11.8% −1.3 | 11.6% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jarvis Elected | Labour | 18,610 | 50.4 | — |
| Robert Lomas | Reform UK | 10,799 | 29.3 | — |
| Tamas Kovacs | Conservative | 3,083 | 8.4 | — |
| Tom Heyes | Green | 1,805 | 4.9 | — |
| Penny Baker | Lib Dems | 1,336 | 3.6 | — |
| Neil Fisher | Other | 616 | 1.7 | — |
| Tony Devoy | Other | 603 | 1.6 | — |
| Janus Polenceusz | Other | 42 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Barnsley SouthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Normanton and HemsworthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Wakefield and RothwellReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Ossett and Denby DaleReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Penistone and StocksbridgeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029