Riding profile

Wakefield and Rothwell

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Wakefield and Rothwell: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.7%
  • Labour 29.4%
  • Conservative 15.7%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 9.2%
  • Other 5.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereWakefield and Rothwell 30.7%29.4%15.7%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.3 21.8% +7.6 19.3% −3.7 10.8% −1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wakefield and Rothwell, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Simon Lightwood

Sits with Labour

Since
2022-06-23
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon Lightwood Elected Labour 17,773 43.7
David Dews Reform UK 8,427 20.7
Arnold Cravan Conservative 7,322 18.0
Stewart Golton Lib Dems 3,249 8.0
Ash Routh Green 2,389 5.9
Keith Mason Other 705 1.7
Brent Hawksley Other 606 1.5
Nicholas Sanders Other 185 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,239
Median age
40
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029