Riding profile
Wakefield and Rothwell
The question
Wakefield and Rothwell: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Wakefield and Rothwell, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Simon Lightwood
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWakefield and Rothwell | 32.7% | 27.3% | 14.4% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.4 | 21.7% +5.6 | 18.9% −4.5 | 11.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Lightwood Elected | Labour | 17,773 | 43.7 | — |
| David Dews | Reform UK | 8,427 | 20.7 | — |
| Arnold Cravan | Conservative | 7,322 | 18.0 | — |
| Stewart Golton | Lib Dems | 3,249 | 8.0 | — |
| Ash Routh | Green | 2,389 | 5.9 | — |
| Keith Mason | Other | 705 | 1.7 | — |
| Brent Hawksley | Other | 606 | 1.5 | — |
| Nicholas Sanders | Other | 185 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029