Riding profile

Leeds South West and Morley

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds South West and Morley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.8%
  • Labour 29.1%
  • Conservative 19.5%
  • Green 9.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 3.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereLeeds South West and Morley 31.8%29.1%19.5%9.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.4 21.8% +7.3 19.3% +0.2 10.8% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leeds South West and Morley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mark Sewards

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Sewards Elected Labour 17,681 44.0
Andrea Jenkyns Conservative 9,258 23.0
James Kendall Reform UK 8,187 20.4
Chris Bell Green 2,522 6.3
Michael Fox Lib Dems 1,798 4.5
Howard Dews Other 664 1.6
Nigel Perry Other 99 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,204
Median age
40
Employment rate
71.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029