Riding profile

Leeds South

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds South: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 37.5%
  • Green 23.7%
  • Reform UK 12.7%
  • Conservative 11.7%
  • Other 9.7%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereLeeds South 37.5%23.7%12.7%11.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +15.7 10.8% +12.9 25.4% −12.7 19.3% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leeds South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hilary Benn

Sits with Labour

Since
1999-06-10
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hilary Benn Elected Labour 17,117 54.0 —
Ed Carlisle Green 5,838 18.4 —
Karen Cooksley Conservative 4,172 13.2 —
Daniel Whetstone Other 1,874 5.9 —
George Sykes Lib Dems 1,340 4.2 —
Muhammad Azeem Other 719 2.3 —
Janet Bickerdike Other 341 1.1 —
Niko Omilana Other 277 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,907
Median age
32
Employment rate
62.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029