Riding profile

Leeds South

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Leeds South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hilary Benn

Sits with Labour

Since
1999-06-10
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.8%
  • Green 26.8%
  • Reform UK 16.1%
  • Conservative 9.8%
  • Other 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereLeeds South 32.8%26.8%16.1%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +11.1 11.8% +15.0 25.3% −9.2 18.9% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hilary Benn Elected Labour 17,117 54.0
Ed Carlisle Green 5,838 18.4
Karen Cooksley Conservative 4,172 13.2
Daniel Whetstone Other 1,874 5.9
George Sykes Lib Dems 1,340 4.2
Muhammad Azeem Other 719 2.3
Janet Bickerdike Other 341 1.1
Niko Omilana Other 277 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,907
Median age
32
Employment rate
62.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029