Riding profile

Leeds East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds East: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Leeds East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Richard Burgon

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.5%
  • Labour 30.2%
  • Green 14.5%
  • Conservative 14.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 5.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereLeeds East 30.5%30.2%14.5%14.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +5.2 21.7% +8.5 11.8% +2.7 18.9% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Burgon Elected Labour 18,610 47.3
David Dresser Reform UK 7,345 18.6
Sam Firth Conservative 6,898 17.5
Jennifer Norman Green 3,506 8.9
Tobie Abel Lib Dems 1,445 3.7
David Hough Other 664 1.7
Catherine Dobson Other 519 1.3
Niko Omilana Other 222 0.6
Pete Young Other 179 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,748
Median age
37
Employment rate
69.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029