Riding profile

Leeds East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.7%
  • Reform UK 28.6%
  • Conservative 16.2%
  • Green 11.9%
  • Other 5.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereLeeds East 32.7%28.6%16.2%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.9 25.4% +3.2 19.3% −3.1 10.8% +1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leeds East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Richard Burgon

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Burgon Elected Labour 18,610 47.3 —
David Dresser Reform UK 7,345 18.6 —
Sam Firth Conservative 6,898 17.5 —
Jennifer Norman Green 3,506 8.9 —
Tobie Abel Lib Dems 1,445 3.7 —
David Hough Other 664 1.7 —
Catherine Dobson Other 519 1.3 —
Niko Omilana Other 222 0.6 —
Pete Young Other 179 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,748
Median age
37
Employment rate
69.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029