Riding profile
Leeds Central and Headingley
The question
Leeds Central and Headingley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeeds Central and Headingley | 36.3% | 32.8% | 15.9% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +14.5 | 10.8% +22.0 | 25.4% −9.4 | 11.4% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Leeds Central and Headingley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 33% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Sobel
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sobel Elected | Labour | 15,853 | 50.2 | — |
| Chris Foren | Green | 7,431 | 23.5 | — |
| Chris Howley | Lib Dems | 2,611 | 8.3 | — |
| Reggie Wray | Reform UK | 2,399 | 7.6 | — |
| Jennifer Jackson | Conservative | 2,237 | 7.1 | — |
| Owais Rajput | Other | 691 | 2.2 | — |
| Rob Walker | Other | 187 | 0.6 | — |
| Louie Fulton | Other | 186 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029