Riding profile

Leeds Central and Headingley

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds Central and Headingley: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Leeds Central and Headingley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 31% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alex Sobel

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.8%
  • Green 30.8%
  • Reform UK 17.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Other 4.1%
  • Conservative 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereLeeds Central and Headingley 34.8%30.8%17.3%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +13.1 11.8% +19.0 25.3% −8.1 11.6% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Sobel Elected Labour 15,853 50.2
Chris Foren Green 7,431 23.5
Chris Howley Lib Dems 2,611 8.3
Reggie Wray Reform UK 2,399 7.6
Jennifer Jackson Conservative 2,237 7.1
Owais Rajput Other 691 2.2
Rob Walker Other 187 0.6
Louie Fulton Other 186 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,466
Median age
24
Employment rate
50.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029