Riding profile

Leeds North West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds North West: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Leeds North West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Katie White

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
25%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.5%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Conservative 18.2%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 10.9%
  • Other 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereLeeds North West 30.5%23.9%18.2%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.8 25.3% −1.4 18.9% −0.7 11.8% +1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Katie White Elected Labour 22,882 46.0
Thomas Averre Conservative 10,986 22.1
Jayne Bond Reform UK 5,935 11.9
Ryk Downes Lib Dems 5,641 11.3
Mick Bradley Green 3,231 6.5
Bob Buxton Other 1,024 2.1
Kathy Bushell Other 78 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,828
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029