Riding profile

Leeds North West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds North West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.1%
  • Reform UK 23.2%
  • Conservative 18.5%
  • Lib Dems 12.3%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Other 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems
HereLeeds North West 32.1%23.2%18.5%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.3 25.4% −2.2 19.3% −0.8 11.4% +1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leeds North West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Katie White

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Katie White Elected Labour 22,882 46.0 —
Thomas Averre Conservative 10,986 22.1 —
Jayne Bond Reform UK 5,935 11.9 —
Ryk Downes Lib Dems 5,641 11.3 —
Mick Bradley Green 3,231 6.5 —
Bob Buxton Other 1,024 2.1 —
Kathy Bushell Other 78 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,828
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029