Riding profile

Bradford East

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Bradford East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.4%
  • Other 24.6%
  • Reform UK 20.4%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Conservative 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Other Reform UK Green
HereBradford East 28.4%24.6%20.4%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +6.6 5.0% +19.5 25.4% −5.0 10.8% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bradford East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for another party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Imran Hussain

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Imran Hussain Elected Labour 14,098 37.9
Talat Sajawal Other 7,909 21.3
Jacob Anstey Reform UK 4,952 13.3
Aubrey Holt Conservative 3,450 9.3
Celia Hickson Green 2,571 6.9
Robert O'Carroll Lib Dems 1,910 5.1
Mohammed Rahman Other 817 2.2
Lara Barras Other 761 2.0
Amer Rehman Other 683 1.8
Richard Riley Other 65 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
120,544
Median age
32
Employment rate
58.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029