Riding profile
Bradford South
The question
Bradford South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBradford South | 30.9% | 25.0% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.5 | 21.8% +3.1 | 19.3% −4.8 | 5.0% +8.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bradford South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Judith Cummins
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judith Cummins Elected | Labour | 11,833 | 35.8 | — |
| Ian Eglin | Reform UK | 7,441 | 22.5 | — |
| Zaf Shah | Conservative | 4,853 | 14.7 | — |
| Matt Edwards | Green | 3,366 | 10.2 | — |
| Rehiana Ali | Other | 3,345 | 10.1 | — |
| Anthony Smith | Lib Dems | 954 | 2.9 | — |
| Harry Boota | Other | 513 | 1.6 | — |
| Jonathan Barras | Other | 489 | 1.5 | — |
| Therese Hirst | Other | 248 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029