Riding profile

Bradford West

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Bradford West: will Labour lose this seat to Other?

Editorial read

Bradford West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 34% vote share, against 19% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Naz Shah

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 34.4%
  • Labour 19.2%
  • Reform UK 18.5%
  • Green 17.4%
  • Conservative 6.5%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Reform UK Green
HereBradford West 34.4%19.2%18.5%17.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +29.6 21.7% −2.5 25.3% −6.8 11.8% +5.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Naz Shah Elected Labour 11,724 31.6
Muhammed Islam Other 11,017 29.7
Khalid Mahmood Green 3,690 9.9
Akeel Hussain Other 3,547 9.6
Nigel Moxon Conservative 3,055 8.2
Jamie Hinton-Wardle Reform UK 2,958 8.0
Imad Ahmed Lib Dems 756 2.0
Umar Ghafoor Other 334 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
122,548
Median age
31
Employment rate
56.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029