Riding profile

Bradford West

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Bradford West: will Labour lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 38.9%
  • Labour 22.6%
  • Green 15.5%
  • Reform UK 14.5%
  • Conservative 6.3%
  • Lib Dems 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Green Reform UK
HereBradford West 38.9%22.6%15.5%14.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +33.8 21.8% +0.7 10.8% +4.7 25.4% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bradford West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 39% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Naz Shah

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Naz Shah Elected Labour 11,724 31.6 —
Muhammed Islam Other 11,017 29.7 —
Khalid Mahmood Green 3,690 9.9 —
Akeel Hussain Other 3,547 9.6 —
Nigel Moxon Conservative 3,055 8.2 —
Jamie Hinton-Wardle Reform UK 2,958 8.0 —
Imad Ahmed Lib Dems 756 2.0 —
Umar Ghafoor Other 334 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
122,548
Median age
31
Employment rate
56.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029