Riding profile

Spen Valley

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Spen Valley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.2%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Conservative 20.7%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Other 6.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereSpen Valley 34.2%25.2%20.7%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.8 21.8% +3.4 19.3% +1.4 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Spen Valley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kim Leadbeater

Sits with Labour

Since
2021-07-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kim Leadbeater Elected Labour 16,076 39.1 —
Sarah Wood Reform UK 9,888 24.1 —
Laura Evans Conservative 9,859 24.0 —
Martin Price Green 2,284 5.6 —
Javed Bashir Other 1,526 3.7 —
Alison Brelsford Lib Dems 1,425 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,940
Median age
42
Employment rate
81.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029