Riding profile
Spen Valley
The question
Spen Valley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Spen Valley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kim Leadbeater
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpen Valley | 34.7% | 23.6% | 20.2% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.3 | 21.7% +2.0 | 18.9% +1.3 | 11.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Leadbeater Elected | Labour | 16,076 | 39.1 | — |
| Sarah Wood | Reform UK | 9,888 | 24.1 | — |
| Laura Evans | Conservative | 9,859 | 24.0 | — |
| Martin Price | Green | 2,284 | 5.6 | — |
| Javed Bashir | Other | 1,526 | 3.7 | — |
| Alison Brelsford | Lib Dems | 1,425 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029