Riding profile

Ossett and Denby Dale

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Ossett and Denby Dale: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.1%
  • Labour 24.3%
  • Conservative 23.8%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%
  • Other 3.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereOssett and Denby Dale 34.1%24.3%23.8%8.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.8 21.8% +2.5 19.3% +4.5 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ossett and Denby Dale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jade Botterill

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jade Botterill Elected Labour 17,232 39.3 —
Mark Eastwood Conservative 12,690 28.9 —
Sandra Senior Reform UK 9,224 21.0 —
Neil Doig Green 2,132 4.9 —
James Wilkinson Lib Dems 1,785 4.1 —
David Herdson Other 810 1.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,842
Median age
46
Employment rate
80.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029