Riding profile
Ossett and Denby Dale
The question
Ossett and Denby Dale: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Ossett and Denby Dale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jade Botterill
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOssett and Denby Dale | 33.4% | 23.9% | 22.9% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.1 | 18.9% +5.0 | 21.7% +1.3 | 11.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jade Botterill Elected | Labour | 17,232 | 39.3 | — |
| Mark Eastwood | Conservative | 12,690 | 28.9 | — |
| Sandra Senior | Reform UK | 9,224 | 21.0 | — |
| Neil Doig | Green | 2,132 | 4.9 | — |
| James Wilkinson | Lib Dems | 1,785 | 4.1 | — |
| David Herdson | Other | 810 | 1.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029