Riding profile
Penistone and Stocksbridge
The question
Penistone and Stocksbridge: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePenistone and Stocksbridge | 33.9% | 26.6% | 20.1% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.5 | 21.8% +4.8 | 19.3% +0.8 | 11.4% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Penistone and Stocksbridge, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Marie Tidball
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Tidball Elected | Labour | 19,169 | 43.6 | — |
| Miriam Cates | Conservative | 10,430 | 23.7 | — |
| Edward Dillingham | Reform UK | 9,456 | 21.5 | — |
| Rob Reiss | Lib Dems | 2,866 | 6.5 | — |
| Andy Davies | Green | 2,044 | 4.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029