Riding profile

Dewsbury and Batley

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Dewsbury and Batley: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 40.2%
  • Reform UK 21.4%
  • Labour 15.2%
  • Green 10.8%
  • Conservative 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Reform UK Labour Green
HereDewsbury and Batley 40.2%21.4%15.2%10.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +35.2 25.4% −4.0 21.8% −6.6 10.8%

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dewsbury and Batley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 40% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Iqbal Mohamed

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
18.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Iqbal Mohamed Elected Other 15,641 41.1
Heather Iqbal Labour 8,707 22.9
Johnathan Thackray Reform UK 6,152 16.2
Lalit Suryawanshi Conservative 4,182 11.0
Simon Cope Green 2,048 5.4
John Rossington Lib Dems 1,340 3.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,956
Median age
35
Employment rate
75.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029